UNEP 'Limiting Overshoot' Report Says Breaching 1.5°C Warming Is Now Unavoidable
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released 'Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return', concluding that the world will most likely temporarily breach the 1.5°C warming threshold above pre-industrial levels within the next few years. Even under an optimistic scenario, global surface temperature is projected to peak at about 1.8°C; under current policies it reaches 2.6°C by 2100. The report warns that several impacts of a temporary overshoot will be irreversible even if temperatures later decline, and that every additional five years of sustained high emissions adds roughly 0.1°C to peak warming. It follows UNEP's annual Emissions Gap tradition of tracking the 1.5°C goal.
UNEP was established in 1972 following the Stockholm Conference and is headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya — the only UN body headquartered in Africa | The 1.5°C and 'well below 2°C' targets come from the 2015 Paris Agreement adopted at COP21 | UNEP also publishes the Emissions Gap Report and the Adaptation Gap Report